IdEngager
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RE: Any basketball fans on here?
Safe to say, I think most people here and around the world are rooting for OKC. I really have nothing against Miami but I'm definitely pro OKC in this series. I think it'll be an interesting series basketball-wise (I can do without the ESPN Lebron agenda melodrama).
OKC has a stronger supporting cast overall but I think matchups make it a lot closer than people realize in that regard. I like that in this series, the best players pretty much play the same position (Lebron/Durant = 3 spot, Wade/Westbrook = lead guard) and they're actually going to have to play defense. No hiding Durant or Westbrook or Wade on Ramon Sessions and Keyon Doolings of the world for long stretches. OKC has a much stronger big man group on the whole, but their strengths are mostly negated by MIA's style of play. Perk is arguably the best one-on-one post defender in the league, but the Heat don't really attack from the low post outside of Lebron on occasion. Collision is another good one-on-one defender but he'll mostly just chase around Bosh on jumpshots. Bosh's jumper will also draw out Ibaka, negating his main strength, altering his main contribution, altering shots off the ball... you see how the lane opened up against BOS when Bosh came back and KG had to respect him. His return is HUGE.
Durant's always had problems with physical defenders (see how Artest and Stephen Jackson have frustrated him at times), and Battier isn't quite as physical as those guys but can definitely frustrate you. KD will have to use his superior agility to get good looks moving off the ball. Lebron is obviously a physical specimen but generally isn't as physical on defense as he tries to avoid fouls (I do agree he gets away with a ton on offense), but we should see him a lot on Durant in crunch time, which will be awesome. On the other side, Lebron is just too damn big for Sefolosha, which could mean extended defensive duty for KD, though they may try Ibaka at stretches.
I really think OKC's chances of pulling this out may come down to Westbrook or Harden balling their ass off. I suspect in crunch time we may see something like Lebron on Westbrook, Battier on KD, and Wade on Harden, but there's going to be stretches of game where one of those guys is matched up against a Mike Miller or Mario Chalmers and they're going to have to make Miami pay. They're going to need 2 or 3 games this series where they drop 30 points or so and really go wild. Of course, these guys are really good so this is definitely in the realm of possibility.
In the end, I think Miami's superior defensive matchups and Finals experience, along with Bosh's presence on the floor opening up the lane for James and Wade wins it for Miami in 6. May this post serves as a jinx on this series.
(Of course, feel free to burn my prediction if Bosh gets hurt or Lebron brain locks again or if you simply disagree with it)
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| 06-12-2012 07:18 AM |
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